It's been dubbed the richest fight in the sport; the "revival of Boxing", the return to excitement. After nearly 6 years of doubts, the fight between the two most currently decorated fighters in Boxing is to take place in Las Vegas.
Everyone's taking sides. Even HBO (who normally backs Pacquiao/Top Rank) and Showtime (who has an alliance with Mayweather Promotions).
But despite the hoopla, there is one thing to specifically think about: this is by no means the biggest fight ever (I would argue that accolade goes to Lewis/Tyson, for international reasons. Pacquiao is largely popular in the US and Asian countries, Mayweather largely in the US only (he used to fight overseas but stopped when he left Top Rank). It isn't that the fight isn't large, it's just the largest possible fight given the current roster of boxers. And that's sad, when you really boil it down.
Taking a step back, we can at least try and ponder what got us to this point and what we may expect to see on May 2nd.
First, Manny Pacquiao. Once greatly feared as a featherweight who later moved up in weight and dominated larger fighters, Pacquiao has a Hall of Fame resume, from Barrera to Morales (eventually) to Marquez to De La Hoya. Pacquiao's most powerful weapon is his speed, period. Prince Naseem Hamed once stated that he was a powerful puncher, but the real key to his knockouts was that his opponents never saw his punches coming. Such is the case with Manny.
Shane Mosley, in an interview, stated that Manny's angles aren't the problem. It's just that his punches hurt regardless of whether he's on the move or planted, and some you don't see coming, which knock you off your game plan worse than punches you do see. Mosley was quick to commit to the fact that he had never experienced that sort of hit from any boxer, and Marquez echoed the same - the punches are thudding blows, not glancing shots.
But the other side speaks a different tune: the fighters that got dominated by Manny all share one critical trait: They don't adapt as the fight goes on. They have a groove and a routine that they have rehearsed over and over again in sparring and training, they've watched videos and they think they have the formula. When they get in the ring, they feel confident. De La Hoya, despite being older, felt that he could dominate Manny because he was bigger. Shane, despite being older, felt he could dominate Manny because he was bigger and at least as fast or faster than Manny.
What neither counted on was the fact that Manny's punching ability didn't care about height, weight or location. He targets the opponent's head and really only needs to get one shot to stun the opponent, then he will strike repeatedly. Watching slow-mo of Manny's punches shows that he focuses on one specific area and attacks it relentlessly, and the stun effect is enough that the opponent can't get out of the way until Manny lets up.
This isn't a weakness for Manny. It's a strength and one he depends on to beat his opponents. It causes them to mostly cover up consistently and just take hits and lose rounds, even if they don't get knocked down or out (Rios and Bradley, for example).
But that weakness exposes critical flaws in Manny's strategy. The boxers that performed best against him, weren't afraid of him. Three of those have victories against Pacquiao: Erik Morales being one of the most notable.
The first fight between the two was exciting, dominant and at times downright scary. Morales' claim to fame was that he couldn't stand to be hit; thus when Pacquiao would hit him, Erik would go nuts and just start throwing punches Tommy Hearns style, and Manny would go into defense mode (Manny's defense is admirable, but not the best in the business). Pacquiao was a frightening mess by the end of that fight. While he would go on to win the next two fights, the second was close, with Erik taking his foot off the gas in the second half and the third was just a dominant victory for Manny. But that first fight exposed one piece of the blueprint: Manny doesn't do well with fighters that tag him good enough and frequently enough. He will take the shot, get stunned a bit and then cover up. He doesn't go on the move.
It's been suggested that Freddie Roach pegged this as a net effect of the fact that Manny used to only throw effectively with one hand, and training him to fight with both hands was the key. Indeed, this did seem to improve his ability to guard against this, but the second boxer, a then-undefeated Timothy Bradley, seemed to unravel this plan.
Bradley was and is not known as a power puncher. Many compare him to Floyd in terms of his fight style and boxing prowess. While this is slightly true, Bradley is less refined, less precise, and certainly not as fast as Floyd Mayweather. That said, Bradley has inklings of talent with his ability to defend against his opponent's assaults. But his problem is that he always feels he has something to prove. This gets him in trouble because he wants to go to war to prove that he deserves his spot. That works against regular boxers. It doesn't fly against powershot throwing bombers.
When Bradley faced Pacquiao the first time, the result was a fight that exposed yet another critical flaw in Manny's strategy: he doesn't do well with pure boxers that stick to their strategy and keep their cool. Bradley got a split decision because at least part of the time, he showed boxing excellence that caused Manny problems in the ring. Manny wasn't nearly as explosive throughout the fight, and most of the time Bradley went down, he was stumbling over his own legs due to Manny's speed. Bradley never got chin checked cleanly. While the result was controversial, nobody can say that Manny completely dominated Bradley.
In the second fight, Bradley was absolutely impressive the first half of the fight, boxing smooth and clean and not giving Manny a chance to get off. In fact, Bradley was the aggressor through round 4, not Manny. This was a beautiful hybrid approach: Bradley was boxing effectively but using the aggression Morales was doing that kept Manny subdued and unable to get his "punches in bunches" going as accurate as usual.
But then (according to Bradley's camp) Bradley hurt his calf and was forced to try for a knockout while defending. Given how Bradley was still moving rather effectively, and given Manny couldn't knock Bradley down, I question the calf explanation, but it was clear that Bradley was out of gas by round 8. Still fighting like a warrior, and Manny didn't seem to have the right answer to fully put him away. Manny walked with a unanimous decision, but two of the three judges had the fight like I did: Bradley was close to another split decision, and likely would have taken it had he not shifted game plans mid stream.
Which brings us to the third and probably most important fighter: Marquez.
"Dinamita" Juan Manuel Marquez, would battle Pacquiao in a series of four bouts that exposed two more flaws.
With Marquez, Manny was never able to truly control the fight. Marquez was arguably dominated in the first fight, but Marquez's performance led us to the second and third fights, which were left questionable as many observers felt the fights could have gone either way each time. Manny likely wanted to prove that he truly was the better fighter by accepting the rematches, but at the end, Marquez sealed the deal with a brutal 6th round knockout of Manny in their fourth fight.
At the time of the knockout, Manny was clearly ahead on the scorecards.
This one moment continues to haunt Manny whether he wants to admit it or not. It hasn't really affected his ability to fight, but since this brutal knockout, Manny has not been nearly as effective at completely stopping opponents. All fights have gone the distance with Manny winning on points and not taking nearly as many risks. What's important though is to analyze how it got to this point - how Marquez got to this point.
Marquez is a natural counter puncher with power. He's not a fast puncher, and his defense is good but not great. However he has power with his counters, and his power increased each time he fought Manny. When Marquez faced Mayweather, it was literally a boxing clinic, with Floyd getting off first each and every time and Marquez simply too slow to keep up with the "Pretty Boy" of boxing. Floyd never really hurt Marquez, let's be clear. But he made Marquez look average when he isn't.
When Marquez later would face Bradley after beating Pacquiao and Ruslan, Bradley would, just like Floyd, expose Marquez to a boxing clinic that surprised many, but seemed to validate that Bradley was the real deal. He was able to do what Floyd was able to do to the guy that Manny could never truly decisively put away, and because of whom Manny kissed canvas.
It was theorized that Manny was distracted about a fight with Floyd when he got knocked out, but I don't believe this is the case. I believe that Marquez used the aggression technique seen by Morales and increased his punching power for countering, then waited for Manny to make a mistake. I believe Marquez lured Manny into a false sense of victory by fighting in the trenches and even taking knockdowns just so he could get that one shot off. In other words, the first critical flaw in Manny's strategy was overconfidence; the second was having his aggression used against him when fighting a pure counter puncher.
All of this leads me to the fifth and probably most important critical flaw, one that Manny and Freddie don't seem to have addressed: Manny's vulnerability to a right hand punch.
Looking back at all of Manny's opponents, both those he beat and those he didn't, there is one common thread. When connecting with a good shot on Manny, it's 99% of the time a right hand, often an overhand right. We saw it with Cotto, we saw it briefly with Algieri (who didn't have anywhere near enough power to use it right), we saw it a lot with Bradley, we saw it with Morales, and we definitely saw it with Marquez (above).
Taken into perspective, here are the weaknesses Manny Pacquiao has to contend with when he faces Floyd "Money" Mayweather.
- Aggression: Floyd is not known as an aggressive fighter these days. The last fight he was truly aggressive in was against Gatti, which was likely Floyd's best overall performance. In that fight, Floyd was so precise and dominant that Arturo Gatti could never get a shot off. It is unlikely that Manny will have to deal with this out of Floyd - but he should watch out for it, because if Floyd gets one key shot off and stuns Manny, he will take advantage of a combo opportunity.
- Boxing: Floyd loves to outbox his opponents when he has nothing to prove. Many have said that the first Maidana fight went to split decision because Floyd decided to fight in the trenches, where the second one was more of a boxing clinic. I believe that Floyd is not going to be moving too much because he feels he wants to prove that he can take the best Manny has to offer, unlike those before him. Remember, many felt that Canelo Alverez was almost guaranteed to stop Floyd Mayweather - and instead was made to look like a rookie, catchweight notwithstanding. It's proven that Manny has trouble with pure boxers, and Floyd is likely the best of them. This will be Manny's worst nightmare through the night, and he has to learn how to cut Floyd off and force him to war (which nobody has been effective at).
- Overconfidence: It's been stated that Manny is looking to make this a "holy war" - that it's his personal mission to stop Floyd. I would argue that Manny Pacquiao has to set his emotions aside and treat this as just another fight, just like Floyd is doing. Robert Guerrero and Victor Ortiz (notably the latter) let their emotions get the best of them and lost for it. Floyd maintains composure throughout a fight, even when Maidana was biting and fighting dirty. Manny has to maintain control over his strikes and cannot allow the emotions to drive his punch stats. If he gets overconfident, he'll run right into a counter right and may very well end up like he did at the end of Marquez IV - which will only serve to validate Floyd as TBE for being the smarter fighter.
- Counter Punching: Floyd's favorite punch is the overhand right after he slips a punch and a right hand lead to setup a combo. Manny can only prevent this by staying busy: he has to crowd Floyd and prevent him from effectively countering his single setup punches. I see that as hard for Manny because his punches are wild and free without the setup punch. I also see that Manny can't head hunt throughout the fight and instead must target multiple parts of Floyd in order to throw off Floyd's ability to target any one spot on Manny. Manny can take a body shot fairly well and he can take a head shot fairly well, but if he's off balance or running in (as in Marquez IV), the shot will have multiple times the effect on him, and he has to stay away from that but still get in range for his shots.
- The Right Hand: Floyd's right hand is a deadly weapon especially if he throws it as an uppercut through the guard. Manny likes to earmuff when he defends; he can't do that frequently against Floyd otherwise he'll eat uppercuts all night. His best strategy is to deflect as best he can any right hand he sees coming - assuming he sees it coming - and stay on the move to try and dodge the right. If Manny gets in close, he'll get countered with the right but it won't hurt as much. If Manny stays busy and crowds Floyd, he may be more accurate in the trench than Maidana was, but he also might not be able to protect himself from countering, as seen when Floyd faced Canelo and was still able to counter even with his back on the ropes.
Does Manny have a chance? Yes - as long as he doesn't let his emotions get away from him and focuses on the precision of strikes rather than "taking this guy out" as he claims to be focusing on.
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